9 predictions for this century

As a scientist it is really easy to draw conclusions based on assumptions and past data. Many of my students have constantly asked me about my views of the future. Although I sometimes have doubts over my own findings but on the back of overwhelming requests from the student community I would like to put down few of the things I think would probably happen in the future.

I request all to have an academic approach to all these statements and not rule them out completely. I have also given the logic for why I believe these could be the realities of our world by the end of this century. Here goes.

1. There would be no countries left in the world. Concept of nationality would cease to exist. Or at least cease to exist in its current form.

Reason- We are moving to more a unified and transparent world. Eventually economies and countries would move towards cooperation and collaboration and in turn unity. National leaders would see more merit in bringing resources together for more efficient welfare of their citizens and economies of scale would involuntarily become the theme for getting them together.

What would the world look like- Based on the current state of world affairs, we would probably have 

a) Capitalist Bloc (made of more right wing capitalist economies- led by USA)- but by current standards this bloc would be much more socialist in nature.

b) Eastern Bloc (as the name suggests the socialist economies- led by China/Russia)- would be more capitalist that the commies today- would possibly include a few European nations which would come of the Eurozone and join this bloc

c) Islamic Bloc - Islamic nations would come together to form a peaceful union

d) Non Aligned Bloc - Bloc where constituent countries would have more freedom to choose their policies.

e) Other remaining so called countries which be forced to merge to the above due to economic pressures.

2. Eurozone would not exist. or a large part of it would join the Capitalist Bloc.

Reason- Eurozone is its current form is a mess and gives little freedom to the constituent members to choose policies for the welfare of its people. The pace at which countries would reach Economic Growth Plateau (EGP) will be phenomenally higher in the coming years and would force the more economically and technologically backward countries to succumb to social pressure and would lead to the demise of the Eurozone as we know it.

What would the world look like-The more indebted countries would possibly join the Eastern Bloc. The rest would by default have to join the Capitalist Bloc to safeguard vested interests of the wealthy.

3. World Population will cross 20 billion and most of them would be old- God bless the young.

Reason- Technological advancements. Africa and Islamic Bloc would become peaceful places to live and would add for bulk of that increase.

What would the world look like- Much of the developed world would be filled with old people who would have lots of savings and all that pension money would go to the lesser developed economies for better returns. Unemployment in the developed world would reach unprecedented levels and would lead to increased crime. The Capitalist Bloc hence would make it costly for the industry to outsource by landing sanctions which would in turn force corporations to move their base to the Non Aligned Blocs or Mars.

4. Unemployment would cross 20% and world growth would stagnate at least for a few decades. Makes me wonder if we are probably at the best time in the short term history of mankind.

Reason- Technological advancements. Manufacturing jobs would mostly be automated. Agriculture would require little human intervention. Service sector would contribute to 80% of all employment in the world.

What would the world look like- Not a very pleasant place for a young graduate. Competition would drive a lot of youth in to depression and drug addiction. Crime rates would soar. 

5. Crude would trade below 10 dollars a barrel.

Reason- Climate Change would be serious stuff by that time. All cars on gas would be banned and would probably use more energy efficient engines- may even work on nuclear energy. Oil would be used only for industrial purposes.

What would the world look like- Much more environment friendly. Much more greener. 

6. Religion as we know would cease to exist-  Over 50% of human population would become Atheistic or Agnostic.

Reason- Increasing mobile work environments would force people to move out of roots to far off opportunities and eventually lose touch with their religious beliefs. Not that people stop believing in the supernatural- Just that they would start doubting the scriptures.

What would the world look like- Some groups would possibly outlaw practicing religion due to  the ill effects of its extremes. Only a few groups within the Islamic Bloc and the Non Aligned Bloc would openly propagate it.

7. Mars would be colonized and would have an economy of its own with a population  of over a million people.

Reason- Technological advancements. Resources at throwaway prices. Presented as the land of opportunities, the first settlers of Mars would probably be Handymen, Plumbers and our regular mechanics who would be lured into moving to Mars for higher paychecks. With high unemployment levels on Earth, moving to Mars may not seem like a very bad idea at that time.

What would the world look like- There would be terrorist organizations that would try to disrupt the process of human migration to Mars and possibly even scare common men from the same. Political parties would also be forced to choose sides. Corporations in the mean time will have the last laugh.

8. Cannabis would be legal in most countries- and more than 20% of the human population would be classified as Full Addicts but not to Cannabis, but a more addictive and cheaper drug which is not invented yet.

Reason- At a time when the world population would be touching close to 20 billion, widespread unemployment would lead to disillusionment among the youth. Cannabis would lose its charm due to its legal status. The more cheaper and potent drug would be easier to produce and would be untraceable by any medical tests.

What would the world look like- The youth would have a tough time to stay away from getting hooked on to the future drug. While the older population would be happy with weed, their children would secretly be destroying their nervous systems.

9. Marriage Rates would go up again but after going lower

Reason- Sometime in between this century, the world would celebrate real women empowerment. This would make the women more career oriented and marriages would become a very unattractive option for many singles. Homosexuality would be out of the closet and unlike earlier estimates more than 20% the world population would identify themselves as non-heterosexuals. Administration would be forced to incentivize marriages to create more babies. So economics would make marriages happen again.

What would the world look like- Marriages would increasing happen for convenience and children would be conceived primarily to enjoy economic incentives.

Bi-Polarization & The Ugly Truth of Life or Why the Anarchist just won't go away

Although I continue to believe that Bi-Polarization or its another form Multi-Polarization can lead to some very interesting revelations about the nature of our Universe, however we will keep this one to explain the more simpler stuff.

For this, I would like introduce two new primary classifications of Life- the Anarchist and the Conformist. If I were to ask any of you- "Which category would you like to be called?" Although bulk of you would think you would fall in between the Anarchist and the Conformist with varying degree however no one would like to believe that we are not answering the question correctly. The question is paradoxical by its very nature. What you are and what you would like to be called are two different things. A person might be a murderer but would like to be seen as a respectable man in the society. A total slut would want to been seen as the perfect wife material. You would want to be seen as a nice guy but you might be the biggest bully around. In short the Anarchist is formed out of an instance of Space-time. When randomness does its tricks, circumstances and the Extreme Conformists in their mindless pursuit of power and wealth tend to create Polarized Memes in the society. These Memes in their last bid to survive capture hosts who fulfill its goals through Anarchy.

Anarchy can be of varying degrees. A crazy mob that butchers an entire village would be classified as an extreme form; or an rebellious teen who steals money from his dad is mild one. The Anarchists would continue to exist even if we eradicate it all levels. Anarchy arises out of situations- some are grave and some are just funny. Anarchy exists because of the continued projection of the Conformist meme and their extreme propaganda. Conformists can sometimes be extremely ruthless. Even if the Anarchists are destroyed by the Conformist to some extent they come in new shapes and forms. Sometimes if the Anarchist movement becomes too strong it can even win. The American Declaration of Independence and all independent nations who had a freedom struggle would come under this category. Anarchists need not even have a shape or form- it can just be ideas. Anonymous would be one.The Hippie era. Vegeterianism??

Here comes the ugly truth of Life. Even if we are some how able to create the best environments in the world to ensure equality & dignity our Life and no man gets left behind either economically, socially or emotionally, the human psyche continues to chase extreme conformism. Till this chase lasts, the other end of the spectrum would linger on. Yes that's right. People are not poor because they don't have enough money- They are poor because other people have more of it. So when some people have more money than others, the ones in the middle follow without endlessly because of a life time's constant brainwash by the Conformist Agenda.

Now let me ask my question again in a different way: Are you an Anarchist or a Conformist?

India enters the Age of Transparency

Not many would have thought that when an year back this was happening to Kejriwal....this would be the eventuality of this situation an year later.

Dec 2012 outside Delhi Sheila Dixit's (ex-Delhi CM) house.

An year later sworn in as the CM of Delhi

Wonder what's going on in her mind

or his

or hers

Bi-Polarization and Capitalism

One of the biggest examples of Bi-Polarization is the existence of Financial Markets and Bubbles. Bubbles happen because of the consistent need for the human mind to be part of the larger wave and not be left behind. Financial Markets facilitate these bubbles and help them exist. Actually its a little more complicated that that. Markets are designed to remove the inefficiencies of the financial system and matching Supply and Demand (.. or another Source and Sink) by providing a platform for pricing exchanging information

Now lets come to a very fundamental question. Are markets efficient or not? Of course people would say that markets are efficient because markets always price in all information. The problem is that this understanding is flawed. The markets are not efficient because some people always make money while others always lose. Why does the phenomenon exist. Occam's razor- because some market participants always have more information that others- its as simple as that- thereby making our perfect and efficient market a void theory.

Till the time the world was going through the Cold War, many countries were not in a situation to remain neutral and had to become party to the entire situation thereby taking sides. Even though some countries were neutral, many eventually became polarized either due to proximity or core ideology or whatever the reason is. The fall of the Soviet Union led to the beginning of a new era and in a bid to become a larger pole in the entire polarization scenario the more efficient system ( at the time) survived and ushered an age of consumerism and privatization.

But there happens to be an underlying weakness in capitalism as well. It might well be possible that the in the past the current form of capitalism showed more endurance than the failed version of Communism. The basic flaw is that Capitalism favors wealth or whoever has more wealth. This gives an undue advantage to the person who has more of it and puts others to a serious disadvantage. Capitalism works by adding a premium to money (in more laymen terms puts an interest rate to cash). To start any project we need cash. Capitalism designates a risk premium to this cash. So in more simple terms interest rates are like a carrot that has been placed in front of us- The ones who ride the horse are the wealthy. But who is following the carrot. Who is the mule? The mule is the working class- those who are starved of cash. Look at the vast economic disparity already existing in the world. Let's face it. The ultimate objective of capitalism is the increase share holder's value. This never ending cycle of increasing economic disparity could eventually be the reason for social unrest and possible future revolutions/alternate forms of governance.

Capitalism in its current form exists because people in power see little merit in the socialist form of governance and having already witnessed its failure in multiple times in history have out rightly rejected ideas of a inclusive growth strategies which could improve the world multiple times. But there is a catch. Capitalism has also failed- and more number times. That's what happens when we have financial bubbles- LTCM, subprime you name it, we have already seen it before. But the problem is that till the time the US continues to maintain its dominance in the world, we would continue to see this system function unless there is complete loss of confidence in the Dollar and their economy. I believe this reality is more closer than we think it is.

Eventually the central bankers and leading economic advisers in the world would figure out that extreme capitalism can lead to massive imbalances in any society. It would only be time before some madmen decide to take control by force if there is a critical mass and then we could land up in another totalitarian regime. Just that the imbalance created are usually trying to equilibrate and already existing imbalance. The underlying problem is that the human mind is not willing to change easily. Change comes at a cost and that work against the short term interests of the shareholders. However, if our governance systems had been more flexible and willing to evolve, we would not have situations like over population, inequality, gun culture, casteism, corruption, lack of medical services etc.

Why would it happen that in spite of having more than sufficient food in the world, there are people still dying of hunger. The reason is the underlying skewed nature of our minds. We are just not willing to accept that may be we are wrong and it is time to embrace a relatively tolerant and humane approach to things.

Lets look at a small piece of information I wanted to share which might change the way you look at everyone else around you. It is interesting to note that entire modern human civilization outside of Africa that we see today are descendants of a small tribe of around 100 people who managed to cross from Africa into Arabia many thousands of years ago. Yes, everyone around you, even your boss, your enemies, your wife and all before you have come from that small group.

Bi-polarization and sensory perceptions

In our previous discussion, I explained how bi-polarization can lead to the existence of two opposite polar entities in systems to ensure continued existence/sustenance. The existence of the two sexes can be derived from the same explanation.

Some of the effects of the bi-polarization of sexes in humans has led to some of the following specializations:
1. Women able to multitask better than men.
2. Men having better spacial/ hand coordination than women
3. Women are much more networked/connected to peers than men
4. Women able to perceive sensory perceptions in more details than men can
5. Women having more longevity and immunity than men
6. Men physically larger than women.

This leads us to an important possibility. Men and Women perceive the world and their lives in very different ways. This drastic realization would mean that how a woman would sense or feel about a particular event/time/color would be very different from the way a man would experience. Not only does that mean all people in the world feel differently but they might actually perceive and understand them differently.

We know that there are super tasters who can taste much better than normal people. We know some people have more sensitive skin. Some can hear really well and some can sing well. All these small differences on people is what helps us becoming more diverse. Its nature's way of not putting all eggs in the same basket.

Now I would like to discuss about the primary senses that we humans have.

1. Vision
2. Auditory sense
3. Smell
4. Taste
5. Touch

Most humans would agree that the above are primary senses any human would most likely have. Some would say there are more but we would like to keep this discussion within the realm of acceptable science.

Now say you have got only 100 units of memory space allocated to you to store a particular piece of information, say think of a day when its raining and you are standing in front of bakery waiting for your bus. How would you allocate those 100 units to the different senses to recreate the entire scene to the greatest detail. Which senses would be your first and second choices. Once you have finalized your allocation I would like you to think about why you made the choices you made.

Now let me guess what choices you would most likely make.

1. Vision
2. Audio

In fact most people would allocate more than 70 of the 100 memory units to the two above senses. What could be the reason for such a lop sided result. Are we stuck with our sight and sound fixation. Or are we subconsciously choosing these two senses for a reason. The reason is blaring right at our faces.

We choose information that which is efficient. We choose Vision and Audio because it helps capture the most information. By seeing and hearing people use associative logic to store a lot of their information. But there is catch here. I have asked you to recreate the entire scene.

Now lets add a control to this experiment. The 100 memory units remain the same. However, this time the only difference is that every visual memory has to have another memory associated with it to ensure that memory has an association. Standalone memory is of no use to the brain and hence our grey just loses it after some time or just discards it. We can still use other senses but at least one association has to be maintained.

Say, you see a tea stall right next to the bus stop I was talking about. With this visual memory of a man taking out hot tea for you on a rainy damp evening, we could possibly take the sound of the stove or the tea getting poured into the cup or maybe just use the smell or taste of tea.

Gripped with that hurdle, our allocation of the memory units comes close to what we call the polarization or Bi-Polarization of the senses.

If my guess is right most people would now allocate more than 40% of the memory units to Vision; Audio would take much lesser space now.

This phenomenon is called Polarization of the senses. Because humans end up taking so much more of input from one particular sense organ for quicker processing and action that other senses take a hit. It is clear that in human beings and many animals, a lot of the brain power is used for storing visual information.

The problem with this kind of polarization is that our mind tends to fill in information for us even if its not there. Visual confirmation is taken and for faster processing the brain fills in the rest for us. Its like guessing the story by just reading the first chapter. Only your mind makes up the rest of the story.

Polarization of senses occurs in animals in different ways. Some animals are known to be able to smells out things and not just the present but through time. Some bears have the capability to figure out if the source of the smell passed through a spot today or yesterday and sometimes even a month. It is possible that the way we perceive our visual sense, other life organisms may have senses which are polarized in another specialization. Is it possible that their brains are able to get a larger amount of their external stimuli from other perception organs. Is it possible that they are therefore able to perceive/see/experience these external factors in very unique ways. Well we can't be sure about this at the moment. But may be if someday we invent machines which can possibly help us communicate with them..... 

Bi-Polarization and Life

Bi-Polarization Effects opens possibilities for explaining some of the basic questions of Life:

1. What is the possible explanation of Life?

2. Why are there two sexes?

3. How did Life get so diverse?

4. What we still cannot explain?

When Big- Bang struck the Time Clock running, there began a race for every thing. Since its been only 13.8 billion years since time existed, it might seem very difficult to explain Life but it isn't. After when the Solar System came to Life around 4.5 bn years ago, Life found the right conditions to form a billion years later. We came quite late on Earth for sure. But lets get to answering those questions.

1. What is Life. 

Life is a controlled transfer mechanism created by the Universe to exchange energy or forms of energy. The transfer is controlled by some rules defined by mother nature.

That might seem quite like a trivialized explanation for such a beautiful experience but we are transferring or exchanging all the time.Universe is a  packet of energy that went haywire for a particular period of time following which energy became mass and mass became complex entities like Life. Life exists because some elements (more specifically carbon, hydrogen and oxygen) in the periodic table come together  more oftern to form regulated entities and can form sustaining units. When these self sustaining systems got more larger, things went into overdrive. Collective units needed to be more stronger to survive. Once a system stays stable for long periods of time, the more stronger units form mechanisms to exchange stimuli and matter in a controlled manner. Over time these systems become capable of storing information and recording past experiences- more like control experiments which after millions of years of repeated sustenance become capable to accepting/rejecting external stimuli.

Ultimately all life is functioning on the information stored in our DNA. These memory coils just help us transfer matter/energy/information/ideas in more controlled manner.

2. Why are there two sexes?

At some point in time, life figured it out that division of labor is the best chance for survival. The existence of the two sexes is a testament to the fact that natural systems tend to get polarized over time. This not just helped in increasing efficiency and diversity but has in turn help in exchanging information which could otherwise have possibly got missed had Life stuck to asexual reproduction. Over billions of years, the polarization of sexes can get extremely skewed and show remarkable differences in the two due to natural selection.

3. How did Life get so diverse?

Changes in external circumstances/stimuli led to similar life forms changing their behavior. The changing environment could have acted on these life forms at different times in evolution and hence the differences. 3.5 bn years is quite some time to show have this diversity becoming real.

4. What we still cannot explain?

Our understanding of existence itself seems still quite limited. Why does anything exist in the first place. Are we the imagination of a super natural entity or are just an extension of a cosmic singularity. The problem is that in spite of all the technological breakthrough, we are still to go much ahead in understanding the Universe. Some with an academic approach to things might find these questions frankly very inconsequential and more delving into the spiritual, nonetheless these happen to be some of the most basic questions before we can understand anything in this world properly.

Natasha

The howling noises kept up the entire night screeching through the roof, pounding the walls. Sometimes even the bed would begin to shake because of the shrill. I am not sure if it was me shaking or the bed. I couldn't make out the difference. The pain in my ears was just too unbearable. Often I wondered why my parents couldn't realize why I woke up so often in the night. May be it was because they could't hear me or at least that is what I could make out of all this.

The doctors told me that I was born mute but miraculously my hearing was proper. Usually they go together- hearing and speech. Mysterious acts of nature. I am six years old and I live in a beautiful neighborhood in South Bombay with my parents. They say that till a few years back, Bombay used to have a different name and they changed it for some reason I never understood. I love my parents very much and they take real good care of me. I am usually the earliest to rise in the morning because the noises outside would make me extremely restless. Pa would wake up next and then we go for our morning walks. Pa would choose a different route every day so that my sense of direction improves and I can compensate for my disability. 

After we come back, Ma would prepare scrumptious breakfast for me. Ma gives it to me on my special plate and only I get to eat from it. My parents have always tried to make me feel special and hence they take real good care of me. In spite of my disability Ma and Pa have always been supportive to my needs and desires. 

Because of the constant sounds in my ears, Ma and Pa have shown me to doctors to find a cure to the problem. However all the medical progress falls flat in from of nature's designs. A few times the clamor in the night would get so sever that I get bizarre dreams. One time, I saw tine white living things the size of cup cakes come out of my body and they were attached to my insides with noodle like appendages. The fear was intense that I had to literally bite off the noodle shaped wires to get the living things detached from my body. 

Ma and Pa have tried may times to make me feel normal. They have made me meet many kids with similar disabilities so that I can get more used to the world outside. Some of these kids are even more crazier that I am. Few of them get so mad they came to bite my face. Ma and Pa had to literally pick me to get the freak kid off me. But then there were others who were much more gentle and nice.

The noises went berserk on a Saturday afternoon. My withdrawal was quite obvious to my parents. They tried really hard to cheer me up. We went to the golf club near by in the evening. We walked along the concrete jogging track which ran parallel to the beach. The breeze was the only savior from all the mad noises around. It was like a civil war going on in my head. There would be grenades exploding and machine guns firing. A few rockets could be heard in the range going to mach speeds. The thought process broke when Ma & Pa decided to take a tour of the palm groves. The band of sun rays alternated withe the shadow of the palm trees like the keys of a piano. We kept pressing each key and there burst another grenade in my head at every note.After sitting on our favorite bench and listening to strange bird sounds, we came back in our jet black sedan. These days the cars are note very friendly especially the larger ones and the public buses. The come like a dinosaur on a preying spree, I am scared of buses.

We reached back by sun down. The sounds were hurting my hears in a very bad way now. I thought I would lose my mind if I didn't do something. I decided to get some fresh air. I strolled out side on the car parking looking at all the cars waiting for their masters to drive them. The guard at the gate seemed to recognize me and smiled. After saying hello to him I went in the opposite direction of the sounds. After a few minutes, I found myself facing a red wall- it was probably a dead end. I thought it would be a good idea to head back as it fast approaching dinner time and Ma and Pa are very particular that I eat my food on time. I turned left at the first corner which was where my house was.The guard was missing and another person was sitting inside lighting a candle. I went to the door and tried to open it. The door won't budge. I tried to shout and make whatever sounds I could make. The doors opened but it was not Ma and Pa on the other side. It was strangers. Did I reach the wrong house. How could that be. I begged for the people to help me. They probably didn't understand and the lade inside came out with a stick and tried to beat me. I didn't understand why. The guard came rushing with his torch and tried to shoo me away. I was losing my mind.

I ran away and hid inside a large cement pipe which was the only safe place I could find at that moment. There in the darkness, I saw other disabled children spending the night and looking strangely at me. Even their mother seemed disabled and weak. They showed pity on me and let me stay with them. I realized that people with disabilities are not welcome anywhere and that's why my parents tried so hard to make me feel normal. Never did I realize the extent of the cruelty the world would be willing to apply and without any remorse. In the midst of all the chaos, I forgot about the noises, my mind had cleared now. I felt like a new person. The sound of the explosions soon faded and my head ache had gone.

After what seems like a few hours, I could hear Ma and Pa shouting from far " Natasha". I rushed towards them. The joy of seeing your parents after you lost them, after feeling helplessness, is something one can understand from experience. The sheer happiness made me swag my tail vigorously and involuntarily . Ma and Pa picked me up with tears in their eyes. I knew the concern they went through. Ma started caressing her gentle hands over my white furry body.

As Ma went in carrying me, Pa switched off the tube lights outside letting the LED lights in different colors glow and said "HAPPY DIWALI"